Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
