Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
